OTTAWA — A new report calls for 20 to 40 times more rooftop and onsite solar energy generation in Canada by 2050 to help the country meet its net-zero targets.
Rooftop and on-site solar is referred to as behind-the meter (BTM) solar, stated a release. The report from Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors, titled BTM Solar: Canadian Market Outlook: How Behind-the-Meter solar can Contribute to Canada’s Net-Zero Future, outlines the current status of the industry in Canada and models its growth potential under different scenarios.
The report states that, if Canada is to achieve net-zero, the country needs BTM solar to meet two- to four per cent of total annual electricity demand, providing 24 to 48 TWh per year. The current adoption rate for BTM solar in Canada is just 0.2 per cent: residential and commercial onsite (rooftop and ground-mount) solar produce 1.5 TWh per year.
The study assesses three scenarios for the future of BTM solar, reflecting three different levels of support: a market transformation model, a scenario featuring expanded financial supports, and a business-as-usual (BAU) case.
Under the current policy environment (the BAU scenario), BTM solar uptake will fall short of the needed two- to four per cent of electricity generation needed to meet Canada’s net-zero targets.
For BTM solar to do its part for net-zero, then capacity must be scaled up by 20 to 40 times today’s levels by 2050. On the residential front, this means one home in three needs to become solar equipped, compared to one in 200 homes currently.
The Canadian Renewable Energy Association (CanREA) commissioned the independent report.
Vittoria Bellissimo, CanREA’s CEO, stated, “BTM solar is an important part of Canada’s renewable energy sector and it has tremendous growth potential. Canadian homeowners want it, municipalities want it, local businesses want it, and Canada needs it: all affordable clean energy solutions have a part to play in getting us to net-zero.”
The report also states the most impactful way to accelerate the adoption curve is to revise building codes to mandate solar in new single-family homes. This would result in an estimated 13 GW of new capacity.
In addition, putting solar on existing homes in Canada could generate an additional 11 GW, with an additional 12 GW generated by solar systems on commercial buildings. Together, this growth would account for 36 GW by 2050.
Homes are too expensive now, adding the cost of solar will drive more families out of ever owning a home which is an economic driver. Large scale energy generation is always more economical. Think.